The Fighting Tigers head to Gainsville this weekend following back-to-back extra inning games ending in a 2-2 tie with Georgia and a 3-2 loss to Tulane in 13 and 11 innings respectively. LSU (20-5-1, 3-2-1) did, however, capture the series victory last weekend against the Dawgs behind dominant pitching performances by both Aaron Nola and Jared Poché. LSU has won the last two series against Florida, including a sweep last year in Alex Box Stadium. Florida (16-9, 3-3) enters the weekend after taking 2/3 at home vs Arkansas, losing 2/3 at Texas A&M, and winning a pair of midweek games over the nation’s #1 team FSU over the course of two weeks. LSU leads the all-time series 56-39-1 over the Gators. Friday night’s game will start at 6:30pm CDT and be broadcast on CST/CSS as well as online on ESPN3.com. Saturday’s game will also be televised, but this time on CBS College Sports and first pitch is at noon. The game on Sunday will be streamed on the GeauxZone with the video feed supplied through GatorZone.com. We get to know this Florida team a little more below.
Florida Gators Record: 16-9
Conference: 3-3, t-1st SEC east
Non-Conf: 13-6
Home: 12-5
Away: 2-4
Neutral: 2-0
Team Overview:
Florida is lead by 7th year head coach Kevin O’Sullivan. During his tenure, Florida appeared in a school record 3 straight College World Series from ‘08-10, has appeared in 6 straight regionals, and had 46 players taken in the MLB draft. UF was one of the weaker postseason teams in 2013, and went 0-2 in regionals finishing their season with a losing 29-30 record. Losing ahead, despite losing 6 players to the draft from last season’s team, there are 8 other newcomers who were taken in the draft as well. This 2014 club is a team that has no seniors and 15 freshmen on its roster. They are pretty average across the board both in terms of offensive production and pitching, with relief pitching being their stronger feature.
Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 4.0 (6.1)
Runs/game allowed: 3.5 (2.0)
Team ERA: 2.95 (1.85)
Opponent ERA: 3.53 (4.99)
Team BA: .265 (.278)
Opponent BA: .242 (.206)
Team Fielding %: .975 (.980)
Opponent Fielding %: .965 (.961)
Good wins: Florida State (2-0)
Bad losses: None
SEC Series Wins: vs. Arkansas (2-1)
SEC Series Losses: @ Texas A&M (1-2)
Starting Pitching:
The starting rotation has been just that, rotating, for Florida this year. O’Sullivan is still searching for the best combination of starters to give his team the best chance on the weekends. After a pair of midweek starts to open his freshman season, the Gators seem to have settled on Logan Shore as the ace of the staff. However, after 3 straight outings over 100 pitches, the coaching staff has decided to give the rookie an extra day of rest for a Saturday start. So rather than Shore, Eric Hanhold will get the first Friday night start of his career. Hanhold is a sophomore right hander that was drafted by the Phillies in the 40th round out of high school. He features a low 90’s fastball, as well as a upper 70’s curve and mid 70’s changeup. LSU of course will counter with Aaron Nola, who continues to dominate every Friday night for the Tigers.
After a breakout performance against Georgia last weekend, Jared Poché will again get the start for LSU. Poché nearly recorded his first complete game allowing 1 run on just 3 hits in 8.2 innings vs the Dawgs. With Shore getting the extra day of rest, we are set up with another freshman duel on an SEC Saturday. Logan Shore was a highly touted recruit from Minnesota who some scouts had going as high as the 3rd round of the draft last summer. His commitment to Florida was solid, and for that reason Shore fell to the 29th round and ended up on campus and could be a first rounder in 2016. Shore is a similar pitcher to Aaron Nola in that he comes from the right side with a low 90s fastball, occasionally touching 94, and he is a control pitcher. Shore won’t walk a lot of guys and works well down in the zone. He also throws a slurve in the upper 70’s and a changeup with plenty of movement.
Neither team has named a starter for Sunday’s game. My guess is that Bobby Poyner will get the pill in the finale. Poyner opened the season as the Friday night starter for 3 weeks until Shore took over those duties. He was moved to the bullpen for a couple of weeks after taking losses to Miami and Illinois. Poyner is a junior southpaw that can throw 4 different pitches and locates them all very well. His fastball is upper 80’s and can get up to 92 at times. He mixes pitches effectively and will throw any pitch in any count. His other pitches are a curve, slider, and changeup. Another potential starter is junior Karsten Whitson. Former first round draft pick, Whitson is an unfortunate case of a player who chose to attend college and has been plagued with injury and really damaged his prospect status. Whiston missed all of the 2013 season and has not developed back to form since then. He has thrown 14.1 innings and surrendered 9 earned runs allowing 13 hits and 9 walks.
Friday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (5-0, 0.22 ERA, 40.1 IP, 19 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 56 K, .141 OBA)
So. RHP Eric Hanhold (3-2, 3.18 ERA, 22.2 IP, 19 H, 8 ER, 8 BB, 17 K, .232 OBA)
Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
Fr. LHP Jared Poché (5-1, 1.91 ERA, 33.0 IP, 24 H, 7 ER, 9 BB, 24 K, .205 OBA)
Fr. RHP Logan Shore (1-1, 1.15 ERA, 31.1 IP, 29 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 23 K, .244 OBA)
Sunday's Pitching Matchup: TBA (below are my best guesses, with LSU going for a whole-staff approach)
Jr. RHP Brady Domangue (2-0, 3.95 ERA, 13.2 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 7 BB, 7 K, .234 OBA)
Jr. LHP Bobby Poyner (3-2, 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP, 28 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, .257 OBA)
Relief Pitching:
The bullpen is the strongest aspect of the Florida team this season. As a group, relievers are 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA, 11 saves, 110 strikeouts, and just 32 walks in 126 innings of work. The bullpen has been a big factor in the Gators winning close games. Florida is 15-0 when tied or leading after 6 innings, and 1-9 when trailing. Ryan Harris has a team best 1.02 ERA in 17.2 IP in 13 appearances. He has allowed just 9 hits for a .153 average against and has a team leading 4 saves. Aaron Rhodes has been outstanding this year with a 1.93 era, recording 3 saves in 12 relief appearances. Rhodes has allowed just 3 hits and 1 run in 9.1 innings of relief against the SEC. Danny Young has a pair of midweek starts, but has been used primarily in relief, recording a 3-0 record and 2.08 era in 21.1 total innings. Brett Morales opened the season as the Saturday starter but was not effective in either weekend start. He will be available in a mid-long relief situation this weekend.
Florida Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .265 (.278)
Team OBP: .342 (.375)
Team SLG: .341 (.386)
Just like LSU, the Florida offense has really been struggling as of late and really most of the season. They have scored more than 6 runs just 4 times in 25 games. By comparison, LSU has done so 12 times in 26 games. The Gators are lead at the plate by Catcher Taylor Gushue, after he put on a clinic at Texas A&M going 7 for 11 (.636). He is hitting .500 in SEC play, and on the season Gushue is hitting .337 and leads the team with 18 RBIs. Braden Mattson is hitting .333 on the season and .391 in SEC play. Richie Martin is the spark at the top of the lineup. He is your typical leadoff hitter with some speed and run producing ability. Martin leads the team in hits (31), runs scored (21), and stolen bases (7). At the bottom of the lineup, with runners on you can expect Buddy Reed to bunt in such situations; he has 9 successful sac bunts on the season. On the bases, Florida is pretty conservative in their approach and tends to only be aggressive with leads.
Florida Projected Lineup:
1) SS Richie Martin (.298 avg, 6 2B, 3B, 10 RBI, 21 R, 8 BB, 18 K, 7-9 SB)
2) 2B Casey Turgeon (.287 avg, 5 2B, HR, 14 RBI, 11 R, 12 BB, 6 K, 2-3 SB)
3) CF Harrison Bader (.261 avg, 2 2B, 3 B, 2 RBI, 5 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1-2 SB)
4) C Taylor Gushue (.337 avg, 10 2B, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 8 BB, 19 K, 0-0 SB)
5) DH Peter Alonso (.250 avg, 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI, 7 R, 9 BB, 14 K, 1-1 SB)
6) 1B Braden Mattson (.333 avg, 4 2B, HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 9 BB, 15 K, 2-3 SB)
7) LF Justin Shafer (.208 avg, 6 RBI, 4 R, 3 BB, 13 K, 1-3 SB)
8) 3B Josh Tobias (.262 avg, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 2 RBI, 7 R, 4 BB, 14 K, 0-0 SB)
9) RF Buddy Reed (.221 avg, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 10 R, 8 BB, 21 K, 1-4 SB)
Other guys we will see:
1B A.J. Puk (.190 avg, 2B, 2 RBI, R, 3 BB, 7 K, 0-0 SB)
OF Ryan Larson (.205 avg, 4 RBI, 3 R, 4 BB, 7 K, 1-1 SB)
UTIL Zack Powers (.171 avg, 2B, 4 RBI, 3 R, 3 BB, 9 K, 0-1 SB)
INF John Sternagel (.278 avg, 2 RBI, 5 R, 5 BB, 2 K, 0-1 SB)
Defense:
Florida is solid defensively with a team .975 fielding percentage. Second baseman Casey Turgeon has not committed an error in 118 chances, while shortstop Richie Martin has committed 10 errors. UF has turned 18 double plays, and LSU has turned 17. Gushue has thrown out just 5 of 23 attempting bas stealers. LSU’s team fielding % is .980.
Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Media Coverage:
TV: Friday – CST/CSS; Saturday – CBS-S; Sunday – None
Online: ESPN3.com – Friday only; GeauxZone Video – Sunday Only (feed through GatorZone.com)
Radio: 98.1 FM (check your local listings) all 3 games; audio always available through the GeauxZone
PREDICTION: It is well documented how much LSU has struggled to hit the ball lately with 6 runs in the last 36 innings. The Tigers are hitting just .199 in SEC play, 2nd to last in the league, while UF is hitting .296, which is 2nd in the conference. Call me crazy, but I really like this matchup for LSU, more so than I did vs Georgia last weekend. Aaron Nola will do his thing on Friday, but the big story is the emergence of Jared Poché as the dependable #2. If Jared can build on his last outing and go a solid 6 IP of 1 or 2 run ball, LSU should be able to take the first 2 games of the weekend. If Poché struggles like he did at Vanderbilt, the entire momentum of the weekend will shift to the home dugout. On Sunday, Mainieri and O’Sullivan are in a similar pickle with veteran guys available and ready, but none of whom have been dependable in this no-so-young season. If Kyle Bouman can somehow be available to toe the rubber, that would surely favor the Tigers on Sunday. Game 3 is a real tossup, but something tells me LSU is due for a breakout performance. I’ll take the Tigers in a rare SEC road sweep.
Fri: LSU 4, UF 0
Sat: LSU 3, UF 2
Sun: LSU 5, UF 4
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