Preview: Kentucky vs LSU – Fri 7pm | Sat 6:30pm | Sun 11am (All Online Only)
Kentucky Wildcats vs. #1 
LSU Fighting Tigers at Alex Box Stadium, Skip Bertman Field in Baton Rouge, LA.
The Fighting Tigers welcome in Kentucky to The Box for a standard Friday through Sunday weekend series. LSU (22-3, 4-2) enters the series as the hottest hitting team in the country scoring 36 runs on 55 hits over the last 3 games against Arkansas and Tulane. Kentucky (16-9, 2-4) opened their SEC season by getting swept by South Carolina, but bounced back last weekend by taking two of three games vs Mississippi State and scoring 24 runs in the series. The Cats played two games this week against in-state opponents, getting beat on Tuesday night 12-3 by the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky then taking care of Morehead State with a 9-4 win on Wednesday. LSU leads the all-time series with Kentucky 46-25-1. The Tigers have won 11 of the last 15 series between the clubs and 8 of the last 9 games played in Baton Rouge.
Kentucky Wildcats
Record: 16-9
Conference: 2-4, 6th SEC East
Non-Conf: 14-5
Home: 8-2
Away: 2-6
Neutral: 6-1
Team Overview:
It’s hard to miss a player more than Kentucky has and will miss AJ Reed. The 2014 Golden Spikes Award winner, Reed was a premier two-way player for the Wildcats leading the team in wins, ERA, batting average, home runs, and the list goes on. Factor in losing that guy along with your other 3 starting pitchers from a year ago, and Kentucky started the 2015 season with a lot of holes to fill. That’s the task Gary Henderson was faced with in his 7th season as the head coach in Lexington. Mix in some young players stepping up along with a few JUCO transfers, and Kentucky has gotten off to a nice 14-5 start in out-of-conference games. Kentucky’s team ERA of 4.29 is ranked 144th in the country while their .299 batting average ranks 35th.
Starting Pitching:
Friday night Kentucky will send out 6’3 righty Zack Brown. The sophomore from Indiana has already surpassed his inning total from his freshman season and developed into the Cats’ ace. Brown tossed a complete game, 2-hit shutout against Northern Kentucky a couple weeks ago. He allows less than 6 hits per 9 innings and boasts a nice 1.11 WHIP. Zack Brown features a fastball 89-92 mph and his main secondary pitch is a curveball in the low 80s. He will occasionally mix in 79-80 mph changeup. Jared Poché will face off against brown and looks to bounce back from the worst outing of his still young career.
Saturday night will be feature an outstanding matchup of righty handed arms – JUCO transfer Dustin Beggs against LSU freshman Alex Lange. Beggs was a 17th round pick in the MLB draft last year, but turned down the Cardinals for an opportunity to throw in the SEC. Beggs won’t overpower you with his upper 80s fastball, but he throws an array of pitches for strikes. His best offspeed pitch is the curveball at 77-79 mph. He also will come at a different angle with the 79-81 mph slider, then slow things down with a soft changeup.
Sunday, Jake Godfrey will face off against junior Kyle Cody. The big 6’7, 250lb righty was a Cape Cod League all-star last summer. He overpowers a lot of hitters with his fastball that has topped as high as 97, typically sitting in the 92-94 mph range. His best overall pitch is a plus slider, which shows flashes of big league potential and sits around 80mph. That slider is his strikeout pitch, but will mix in a changeup as well.
Relief Pitching:
Kentucky’s bullpen has been pretty bad this year, and they will be tested against this deep LSU lineup. Brad Schaenzer leades the team with his 2.12 ERA in 17 innings, and he is one of a few lefty options for Kentucky. Taylor Martin picked up the win on Wednesday in relief and has a team best 0.65 WHIP.
Kentucky Offense: (LSU)
Kentucky has two big game changers in the top third of their lineup. Ka’ai Tom leads the team with a .402 average ranking 8th in the SEC. He was first team All-SEC last year and is on pace to have an even better season as a sophomore. The other impact player is reigning SEC player of the week Kyle Barrett, who has the 4th most hits in the country. Barrett will be starting his 101st game for Kentucky and enters the weekend with a .391 average. Kentucky doesn’t pose much of a power threat as a group with just 10 HRs on the season ranking 2nd to last in the SEC. All but two guys in the projected starting lineup have at least 1 home run, but none has more than 2 individually.
On the bases, the Cats have successfully stolen 79% of the bases they attempt to steal, which ranks 4th in the SEC; however rank 9th in attempts. Ka’ai Tom and Kyle Barrett each have 6 stolen bases on the season and 20 in their careers. Storm Wilson has also swiped 6 bags on the season.
Defense:
Kentucky has been pretty bad defensively fielding .965 on the season. Middle infielders Heady and Shelby have combined for 18 errors, but the Cats have turned 25 double plays on the season. LSU has turned a league worst 14 double plays. Kentucky rotates 2 catchers – Greg Fettes and the above listed DH Zach Arnold. Fettes has caught just 2 of 14 base stealers, while Arnold has caught only 3 of 18. Those 5 caught stealers are the fewest about by any team in the SEC.
Helpful Links
Kentucky Stats
Kentucky Roster
Kentucky Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Live Stats via LSUsports.net
WatchESPN for Online Viewing (login required)
FAQ: How to watch LSU Baseball games this season
#1 LSU Fighting Tigers vs. 
Arkansas Razorbacks at Baum Stadium at George Cole Field in Fayetteville, AR.
The LSU Fighting Tigers (19-2, 2-1) head north to Fayetteville, AR, for a Thursday through Saturday series with the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Tigers come off the best offensive performance against Ole Miss in 80 years to win the series last Sunday, and follow that up with a 4-2 heart-pounder across town at Southern on Tuesday night. It took extra innings to do it, but the Tigers escape the Jags and what would have been an RPI and potential Top 8 seed nightmare of a loss. Arkansas (10-9, 0-3) comes off of a midweek split in a pair of games with SEMO after being swept in their SEC opening series in Nashville. LSU leads the all-time series with the Hogs 61-29 in a series that dates back to 1960, including 4 of the 5 meetings between the teams last season and 10 of the last 13 total. The last 15 series between these teams have seen 7 sweeps – 4 by LSU and 3 by Arkansas.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Record: 10-9
Conference: 0-3, t-7th SEC west
Non-Conf: 10-6
Home: 9-4
Away: 1-3
Neutral: 0-2
Team Overview:
Dave Van Horn leads his 13th team at Arkansas after another 40 win season in 2014 and a regional loss to CWS runner-up Virginia. What is usually a staple of an Arkansas team, pitching has been a major issue for the Hogs this season and their team ERA of 4.43 lands them dead last in the SEC. They are 5th in the league in hitting at a .295 team average. LSU ranks 1st in hitting and 3rd in team ERA. The 10-9 record to start the season is one of the worst starts in nearly 40 years for Arkansas.
Team Stat Comparison (LSU)
Runs/game scored: 6.2 (7.1)
Runs/game allowed: 5.4 (3.0)
Team ERA: 2.30 (2.26)
Opponent ERA: 4.87 (6.32)
Team BA: .295 (.319)
Opponent BA: .241 (.212)
Team Fielding %: .972 (.969)
Opponent Fielding %: .969 (.953)
Starting Pitching:
The Arkansas rotation has been anything but consistent so far this year. Only 2 of the 6 weekends after this one will have seen the same 3 pitchers. The 15 weekend starts for the Hogs have average of 4.0 innings per start and a 3.42 ERA.
Thursday night will be a sophomore showdown between Dominic Taccolini and Jared Poché. Taccolini is a 6’3 righty from Sugarland, TX. He throws the terminator in the 92-93mph range and mixes in a curve, but his plus changeup is the strikeout pitch to look out for.
Friday’s starter for Arkansas is unannounced at this time, but I am going with Zack Jackson, who did not throw in either midweek game and seems to be the best candidate for the job. Jackson is a power righty with a really nice changeup, but struggles with command at times. Jackson is 3rd in the SEC with a ridiculous 0.83 ERA in 18.1 innings of work but has walked 17 batters raising his WHIP up to 1.58.
Game 3 on Saturday afternoon will the best matchup on paper featuring Arky junior Trey Killian against LSU freshman Jake Godfrey. Killian is the Arkansas ace coming off of a shoulder injury and making just his 3rd start of the season. Last spring, Killian tossed a complete game against the Tigers, but took the loss allowing 5 runs in 8 innings of work but held LSU to just a .208 average against him. He has improved his command from a year ago, once again featuring a low 90s fastball mixed with a sinking change and a sliding breaker that fall in the low 80s.
Relief Pitching:
The Arkansas bullpen has pretty much been a disaster with the exception of a couple arms, one of whom I am projecting to start on Saturday. In relief, this Arkansas team has a 5-6 record and 5.08 ERA, allowing 50 earned runs over 88.2 innings of work. Jacob Stone and Lance Phillips have thrown in back to back midweek games, so they may not be available on Thursday night.
Arkansas Offense: (LSU)
Team BA: .295 (.319)
Team OBP: .389 (.380)
Team SLG: .462 (.474)
The Razorbacks hit just .263 as a team in 2014, but return 8 of the top 11 contributors from that team and that vetern presence has proven meaningful with the team average up to .293 so far this year. Bobby Wernes is having an outstanding season with a .355 average and 4 triples is 2nd in the league behind Stevenson, while Benintendi provides the biggest power threat with 5 bombs. On the bases, Arky has the fewest attempts in the SEC with only 18 on the year and 11 successful is the 2nd fewest in the league. Benintendi is the top base stealer with 4 swipes in 6 tries.
Defense:
The Razorback defense has made big strides over the last three seasons and is currently standing in the middle of the SEC with a .972 fld% after committing 4 errors in the two games this week against SEMO. The 3 every day middle infielders, two above plus McAfee, combine for only 4 errors on the season, and the team has turned 22 double plays. The Hogs use 3 catchers; Pennell has developed into the go-to guy, and base stealers have swiped 8 out of 13 bases against him. Shaddy has thrown out just 3 out of 15 runners, while Glosser did not catch any of the 3 stolen base attempts against him.
Helpful Links
Arkansas Stats
Arkansas Roster
Arkansas Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Live Stats via LSUsports.net
WatchESPN for Online Viewing (login required)
FAQ: How to watch LSU Baseball games this season
GPA is my 2nd favorite hitting stat behind OBP. It is a refinement of the OPS formula giving a higher weighted value to OBP% over SLG%.
Gross Production Average or GPA is a baseball statistic created as a refinement of On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS). GPA attempts to solve two frequently cited problems with OPS. First, OPS gives equal weight to its two components, On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). In fact, OBP contributes significantly more to scoring runs than SLG does. Sabermetricians have calculated that OBP is about 80% more valuable than SLG.
GPA= 
Stats through 3/13/2015:
Ole Miss Rebels vs. #4 LSU Fighting Tigers at Alex Box Stadium, Skip Bertman Field in Baton Rouge, LA
The Fighting Tigers kick off SEC play with division rival Ole Miss coming into The Box for what appears to be the best weather weekend of the season thus far. The Rebs have not won weekend series at Alex Box Stadium since 1982 and are just 11-40 in Baton Rouge since that series. Ole Miss (9-7, 0-0) enters the weekend with LSU after splitting a pair of midweek games with the #8 ranked Louisville Cardinals. LSU (16-1, 0-0) is riding a 13 game winning streak, allowing just 6 total runs over the last 6 games. LSU leads the all-time series 170-145 (or 168-148 according to the OM Media guide).
Ole Miss Rebels
Record: 9-7
Conference: 0-0
Non-Conf: 9-7
Home: 7-3
Away: 2-4
Team Overview
Mike Bianco and the Rebels finally got the monkey off their back last year and reached the College World Series last year, winning a pair of games and finished tied for 3rd for the best finish in program history. That veteran group lead by Will Allen and ace Chris Ellis has moved on and this 2015 squad is still trying to develop its own identity. They have had a rough start to the season and need to turn things around at the plate and on the mound, or they will finish in their predicted 6th position in the SEC West.
Team Stat Comparison (LSU)
Runs/game scored: 5.2 (7.0)
Runs/game allowed: 4.3 (2.8)
Team ERA: 3.75 (2.00)
Opponent ERA: 4.20 (6.59)
Team BA: .255 (.322)
Opponent BA: .232 (.213)
Team Fielding %: .977 (.969)
Opponent Fielding %: .953 (.950)
Starting Pitching
Friday night will feature a rematch from a year ago between southpaws Jared Poché and Christian Trent. Trent, the Madisonville native, is unblemished in his Ole Miss career with 12 wins and zero losses, including the game against LSU last season in which he allowed just 1 unearned run in 7 innings of work to pick up the victory over Poché and the Tigers. Trent is a typical lefty in that he pounds the strike zone and throws in the upper 80s. He has been clocked as high as 92 with his fastball. He has an outstanding swing-and-miss slider in the low 80s, as well as a good changeup around 80 mph. Christian has been known throughout his pitching career to go deep into games and very often will close them out. This lefty-lefty matchup should prove to be another great one in the series.
On Saturday, sophomore Brady Bramlett is having an outstanding season thus far after missing part of the 2013 season and taking a medical redshirt in the 2014 season with a labrum injury. Bramlett has struck out 34 of the 82 batters he has faced this season, allowing just 13 hits in 22 innings of work. He is mostly a fastball power pitcher in the low to mid 90s. He will be facing off against LSU righty Alex Lange, who continues to progress in his rookie campaign.
Sunday has been an issue for Ole Miss so far in 2015 for Bianco and his staff. Senior Sam Smith, who has started on Sundays for the last 2 seasons in Oxford, has really gotten off to rough start this year with a 6.41 ERA and has been pulled from the weekend rotation for now. With that, Ole Miss’ Sunday starter is TBA, but I expect it to be Jacob Waguespack. With 4 career starts, Wags is also a Louisiana native out of Dutchtown High who the Tigers were heavily recruiting back in 2012 but eventually chose the Rebels. He has 6 appearances on the season all in relief and has been very effective with a 0.86 WHIP. LSU will once again send out freshman Jake Godfrey.
Relief Pitching
If Waguespack does not start on Sunday, you can expect him to enter the game in any major situation this weekend, particularly in a close game on Friday night. Aside from him, Scott Weathersby and Wyatt Short have been lights out with a combined .162 BAA, 0.84 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts in 20.1 innings of work between them. Will Stokes leads the team with 2 saves in 6 appearances on the season.
Ole Miss Offense (LSU)
Team BA: .255 (.322)
Team OBP: .369 (.389)
Team SLG: .371 (.480)
The loss of 6 starters from last year’s CWS team has been devastating to Ole Miss’ offensive production. From leading the SEC in multiple offensive categories last year, the 2015 Rebs are sitting at 13th in the league with a .255 average heading into conference play. However, Ole Miss is drawing 45% more walks per game than a year ago and has actually improved its team on-base percentage despite the BA dropping over 40 points. All-SEC senior Sikes Orvis is off to a slow start with a .208 average but leads the team with 3 home runs. Leadoff hitter Kyle Watson is leading the team with a .350 average and reaches safely in more than half of his plate appearances.
On the bases, Ole miss is 10th in the SEC in stolen base attempts, successfully swiping 18 bases in their 16 games. The guys to watch out for on the base paths are Kyle Watson and Cameron Dishon, who each have stolen 7 bags on the young season. LSU is tied for the league lead with 35 stolen bases already.
Defense
Ole Miss has a solid defense fielding .977 on the season turning 15 double plays already; LSU has turned just 8. Ole Miss splits time between two main cathers. Henri Lartigue has thrown out just 1 base stealer out of 6 attempts, while Austin Knight has allowed 3 of 4 bags to be stolen against him. The LSU defense is fielding .969 as a team, which is up significantly after going errorless the last week of play. Scivicque has caught 6 of 16 attempting stealers while Papierski has caught just 1 of 6 runners going.
Helpful Links
NCAA.com Series Preview
Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Live Stats via LSUsports.net
WatchESPN for Online Viewing (login required)
FAQ: How to watch LSU Baseball games this season
