The LSU Fighting Tigers head back on the road for the final weekend of the season. The roads traveled this time lead to the state of Alabama where LSU will face off with the Tigers of Auburn. LSU (37-14-1, 14-11-1) is still in contention for the SEC Western Division title, but needs to have a good weekend and get a little help along the way. The Fighting Tigers split a pair of rain-affected games on Saturday with Alabama before having game 3 cancelled. Then comes another ordinary Tuesday night, the last home game of the season against another in-state opponent. That’s where the ordinary ends and the extraordinary begins. LSU broke out the bats for 27 runs on 23 hits in less than 6 innings of play, breaking a school record with a 27 run margin of victory. Same game, more history, five LSU pitchers combined to no-hit the Demons, the first combined no-hitter in school history. This magical night was enough to get LSU Baseball onto SportsCenter for the 3rd time this season. Auburn (28-25, 10-17) is fighting for its postseason life, and unless they can work their way into the SEC tournament, their season will end on Saturday. The Tigers of Auburn are 1-5 in their last 6 SEC games and haven’t won a series at home since the opening weekend of SEC play in mid-March. They lost 2 of 3 last weekend at Kentucky and won a midweek contest with UAB on Tuesday night. LSU leads the all-time series 91-70, including a sweep in Alex Box Stadium last year.
Thursday night’s game is scheduled to start at 6:00pm and is NOT on TV. Friday’s game is also scheduled to start at 6:00pm and it too will NOT be televised. Both games 1 and 2 are available for Premium All Access members on AuburnTigers.com. Game 3 will start at 1:00pm on Saturday and will air on FSN. Streaming for Saturday only will be available on ESPN3.com but is subject to blackout in all of the SEC states. As always, audio is available for all 3 games in the GeauxZone.
Auburn Tigers Record: 28-25
Conference: 10-17, 7th SEC west
Non-Conf: 18-8
Home: 19.13
Away: 7-10
Neutral: 2-2
Record vs. RPI: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team RPI: 63 (18)
vs Top 25: 4-10 (4-8)
vs Top 50: 13-16 (14-12)
vs Top 100: 16-20 (15-12)
Team Overview:
Sunny Golloway is in his first year as head coach of the Auburn Tigers and already learning the difficulty of coaching in the SEC. Starting with the departure of 3 players just a couple weeks into the season, multiple midseason suspensions, and later with a frustrating stretch of 10 losses in 14 games, Golloway was quoted as saying “I had no idea how many things were broken when I took the job. I had no idea and I'm learning the hard way, I will tell you that.” Things haven’t gotten much better for the new Tiger skipper with the team in last place in the West and on the verge of missing the conference tournament, which only excludes 2 of the league’s 14 teams. Auburn has scored the 3rd fewest runs in the SEC and the .278 batting average against is 4th worst in the league. These Tigers are just average at the plate, and with the loss of Keegan Thompson are a well below-average pitching team. Auburn hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament since 2010 and barring a serious run in the next 10 days to win the conference tourney, that streak will continue.
Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 4.4 (6.1)
Runs/game allowed: 3.8 (2.9)
Team ERA: 3.09 (2.58)
Opponent ERA: 3.73 (5.17)
Team BA: .274 (.278)
Opponent BA: .249 (.221)
Team Fielding %: .971 (.973)
Opponent Fielding %: .968 (.968)
Good OOC wins: vs Indiana State (1-0), Mercer (3-0)
Bad OOC losses: East Tennessee State (0-1), Presbyterian College (2-1)
SEC Series Wins: vs Texas A&M (2-1), @ Tennessee (2-1), @ Arkansas (2-1)
SEC Series Losses: vs Missouri (1-2), @ Ole Miss (0-3), @ Alabama (1-2), vs South Carolina (1-2), vs Mississippi State (0-3), @ Kentucky (1-2)
Common OOC Opponents:
South Alabama 1-0 (LSU 1-0)
Starting Pitching:
Unfortunately for Auburn, their stud freshman Keegan Thompson took a linedrive off the foot last weekend against Kentucky and will miss the remainder of the season. As a freshman, he had developed into the backbone of the Aubie staff, as well as being a contributor on the offensive side and playing first base. Normal weekend starters Dillon Ortman and Michael O’Neal will throw games 1 and 2 again, but the third starter is yet to be determined.
The rotation for LSU will be slightly different this weekend due to the way the rain affected last weekend. Jared Poché will start the opening game of the series, since he was not able to throw on Sunday. He will face off against RHP Dillon Ortman. The Auburn senior is 6-2 in SEC contests and his 1.83 ERA is 6th in the league, even ahead of Nola’s 2.00 in SEC games. Ortman has 9 wins on the season and a 2.01 ERA over 94 innings of work, 3rd most in the SEC. Dillon won’t overpower you with his upper-80s fastball, but he lives in the zone, walking just 1.4 batters per 9 innings. In addition to that fastball, he mixes in a changeup and a slider, which he can both throw for strikes in any count. Left handed batters achieve much more success against Ortman hitting .277 as opposed to the .202 average of right handers.
Stat of the week: Auburn is 21-14 vs. RH starters and 7-11 vs LH starters.
Friday night, Aaron Nola will take to the mound to face off against Michael O’Neal. The senior southpaw O’Neal does not overwhelm anyone with his stuff, but he can throw multiple pitches for strikes. He has four pitches including his fastball at just 82-84mph in addition to a big, loopy curve and a changeup that both fall in the zone just over the 70mph range. The fourth pitch is a newly developed slider that he mixes in to show a different look from the bending 12-6 breaker. Like Poché did for LSU, O’Neal started the game on Tuesday night and threw 64 pitches in 2.2 innings. Aaron Nola is coming off of his best outing of the season going the complete game against Alabama allowing just 4 hits for LSU’s 14th shutout on the year.
The injury to Keegan Thompson really dilutes the quality of options for Coach Golloway, and with that, no starter for game 3 has been announced yet. A longshot candidate to fill that spot is Senior Centerfielder Ryan Tella. Being solely a position player for his college career, Tella stepped into an unexpected relief role against Kentucky with the bases loaded and no outs and proceeded to strike out the side. In just his 2nd collegiate relief appearance that day, Tella went on to take the loss in extra innings, but a new option emerged for the Tigers. More experienced and likely options include So. RHP Trey Wingenter (1-1, 2.38 era, 22.2 ip, .298 oba) or So. RHP Justin Camp (1-5, 4.01 era, 42.2 ip, .246 oba). LSU will continue with the same policy of a TBA for the game 3 starter with Alden Cartwright being the prime candidate.
Thursday's Pitching Matchup:
LSU - Fr. LHP Jared Poché (7-3, 2.55 ERA, 70.2 IP, 56 H, 20 ER, 23 BB, 43 K, .224 OBA, 1.12 WHIP)
AU - Sr. RHP Dillon Orton (9-3, 2.01 ERA, 94.0 IP, 81 H, 21 ER, 15 BB, 58 K, .229 OBA, 1.02 WHIP)
Friday's Pitching Matchup:
LSU - Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (8-1, 1.43 ERA, 94.2 IP, 55 H, 15 ER, 22 BB, 111 K, .169 OBA, 0.81 WHIP)
AU - Sr. LHP Michael O’Neal (3-5, 3.82 ERA, 68.1 IP, 71 H, 29 ER, 27 BB, 27 K, .277 OBA, 1.43 WHIP)
Saturday's Pitching Matchup: TBA
Relief Pitching:
Nearly 27% of the runs Auburn has allowed this year have come in the 8th inning or later and the Tigers have been outscored 53-17 in those innings. Not many of the team’s 28 wins have come from the relief pitching. Jay Wade leads the Auburn bullpen with 22 appearances and 4 victories in relief. He is one of just a few relievers that have been dependable for the Tigers on the back end with his bullpen best 1.04 WHIP. Terrance Dedrick leads the team with 4 saves, but he has allowed 32 hits and a very high 15 walks in 25 innings. There is only 1 left handed pitcher on this Auburn team aside from O’Neal and that is Junior Daniel Koger. He has been a starter in 26 games of his career but has spent most of this season being called out from the practice dirt. Despite being a southpaw, leftys hit for .348 while right handers hit just .204 against Koger.
Top Bullpen Arms:
Sr. RHP Jay Wade (22 app, 4-2, 1 save, 3.28 ERA, 35.2 IP, 31 H, 13 ER, 6 BB, 24 K, .235 OBA, 1.04 WHIP)
Jr. RHP Jacob Milliman (10 app, 0-0, 2.19 ERA, 12.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 11 K, .205 OBA, 1.21 WHIP)
So. RHP Trey Wingenter (12 app, 1-1, 2.38 ERA, 22.2 IP, 28 H, 6 ER, 8 BB, 22 K, .298 OBA, 1.59 WHIP)
Jr. RHP Trey Cochran-Gill (27 app, 0-2, 1 save, 3.58 ERA, 32.2 IP, 40 H, 13 ER, 9 BB, 20 K, .315 OBA, 1.50 WHIP)
Jr. LHP Daniel Koger (13 app, 2-0, 3.92 ERA, 20.2 IP, 19 H, 9 ER, 8 BB, 16 K, .247 OBA, 1.31 WHIP)
Sr. RHP Terrance Dedrick (22 app, 2-3, 4 saves, 5.04 ERA, 25.0 IP, 32 H, 14 ER, 15 BB, 19 K, .323 OBA, 1.88 WHIP)
Auburn Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .274 (.278)
Team OBP: .366 (.363)
Team SLG: .344 (.400)
The Auburn position players are a mixed age group starting 4 freshman and 4 seniors, but standing out among the ranks is sophomore Jordan Ebert. His .356 batting average is 2nd best in the SEC. Damek Tomscha leads the team in home runs with 5, and his .452 on base percentage is 2nd only to A.J. Reed in the SEC. Tomscha and Damon Haecker have combined for 59 walks on the season. Haecker is a switch-hitting freshman shortstop and is the only player has started all 53 games for the Tigers. Senior leader Ryan Tella has not let down in his final year after a disappointing junior campaign hitting .310 and 3 home runs and 13 stolen bases.
On the bases, no team in the SEC runs more than the Auburn Tigers. Five different Auburn players have attempted 15 or more stolen bases, compared to LSU which has only 1 at that mark. Dan Glevenyak leads the group with 14 swiped bases in 16 tries. On the negative side of that aggressiveness, Auburn has been caught stealing more than any other team in the league.
Auburn Projected Lineup:
1) RF Anfernee Grier (.257 avg, 7 2B, 10 RBI, 14 R, 12 BB, 20 K, 7-15 SB)
2) SS Damon Haecker (.258 avg, 4 2B, 17 RBI, 23 R, 33 BB, 31 K, 10-17 SB)
3) C Blake Austin (.267 avg, 10 2B, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 19 R, 15 BB, 27 K, 4-8 SB)
4) DH Daniel Robert (.281 avg, 5 2B, 3B, HR, 12 RBI, 12 R, 17 BB, 23 K, 1-2 SB)
5) 1B Damek Tomscha (.325 avg, 8 2B, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 37 R, 26 BB, 20 K, 4-5 SB)
6) CF Ryan Tella (.310 avg, 6 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 30 R, 14 BB, 23 K, 13-18 SB)
7) LF Jordan Ebert (.356 avg, 5 2B, 3B, 28 RBI, 28 R, 12 BB, 24 K, 9-15 SB)
8) 2B Dan Glevenyak (.248 avg, 5 2B, 3 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 21 R, 18 BB, 20 K, 14-16 SB)
9) 3B Connor Short (.222 avg, 2B, 8 RBI, 6 R, 7 BB, 12 K, 9-10 SB)
Other Contributors:
C Blake Logan (.282 avg, 3 2B, HR, 17 RBI, 9 R, 10 BB, 13 K, 0-0 SB)
INF Brett Binning (.348 avg, 2 RBI, 5 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 1-1 SB)
OF Sam Gillikin (.224 avg, 5 2B, 4 RBI, 5 R, 6 BB, 11 K, 0-1 SB)
Defense:
Auburn’s season defensively is an anomaly in that most of their errors came in the OCC schedule rather than SEC play. This defense has committed just 20 errors in the 27 conference games while committing 40 errors in 26 games outside of the league. Their SEC fielding percentage of .980 is tops in the league and the overall .971 FLD% is 11th. Middle infielders Damon Haecker and Dan Glevenyak combine for 21 errors on the year, but the team’s 50 double plays are the 2nd most turned in the SEC. Although stealing the 3rd fewest bags in the conference, LSU may choose to be more aggressive on the bases than in previous games. Main catcher Blake Austin throws out less than 29% of attempting base stealers. Tyler Moore is scheduled to catch for LSU also throws out just under 29% of stealers, which could come into play with Auburn’s aggressive style of base running.
Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Media Coverage:
TV: Saturday only – FSN
Online: Saturday only - espn3.com and the watchESPN app with blackout restrictions in effect
Radio: 98.1 FM (check your local listings) all 3 games; audio always available through the GeauxZone
PREDICTION: This is definitely crunch time for both teams as it is for most teams across the country. Does LSU use Tuesday’s record performance to springboard into a postseason run? Does Auburn break out at home against a top ranked team to earn a spot in the SEC tournament? If you ask me, Thursday night will determine everything. Ortman vs Poché. If LSU can come away with this one, I think it leads to the first road sweep of the season. Either way, Nola is as close to a lock as it gets on Friday night against O’Neal, and I think game 3 will be a matter of a thin bullpen for Auburn. The LSU bats will show up on Friday and Saturday for a series win. The sweep? Well let’s see what happens just 46 hours after putting on a hitting display not seen in many years. I think we get to the bullpen early enough to make an impact and get that much needed sweep, then… we scoreboard watch in the West.
Thu: LSU 4, Auburn 3
Fri: LSU 6, Auburn 0
Sat: LSU 8, Auburn 4
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